Is this correction a buying opportunity or has bitcoin made a short-term top? Let’s analyze the charts.
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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
When an asset class jumps 275% within a span of six months, corrections are bound to happen. Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed one such violent correction on June 27. Fundstrat Global Advisers co-founder Thomas Lee said that the hyper volatility of bitcoin is an advantage to the dedicated traders who can take advantage of the volatility and trade accordingly. However, for others, he advised a long-term approach.
Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz expects bitcoin to stabilize and consolidate between $10,000 and $14,000. He believes that the arrival of Facebook’s Libra will give confidence to the institutional traders to enter the space. Now, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon confirming that the investment bank is looking at tokenization, the institutions will have to take the plunge or risk being left behind.
A rising volume in an uptrend indicates increasing demand. The volume of bitcoin traded on BitMEX jumped to $13 billion on June 26. Its CEO, Arthur Hayes said that the volume and open interest build shows that the bear market is officially over. What can one expect from the major cryptocurrencies going forward? Let’s look at the charts and analyze.
Bitcoin reversed direction from $13,973.50 on June 26 and plunged to a low of $10,530.70 on June 27. That is a 24.63% fall within a day. The reason for such a sharp fall is that a vertical rally does not form any support levels en route. Hence, when the price starts falling, buyers do not step in until they spot a level that can act as a support. In this instance, buyers came in close to the 50% retracement of the latest leg of the rally. The 20-day EMA is located just below this level.
In a strong uptrend, the corrections usually last anywhere between one to three days. Currently, the bulls are attempting to resume the uptrend. They might face some resistance at $12,000 and above it at $13,000 but the real test will be at $13,973.50. If the BTC/USD pair breaks out of this resistance, the momentum will continue.
On the other hand, if the bears defend the overhead resistance, the pair might enter into a consolidation for a few days. On the downside, below $10,530.70, the next support is at $9,977.33, which is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest leg of the rally. If this support cracks, the digital currency will weaken and can drop to the 50-day SMA.
Though Ether (ETH) had closed (UTC time frame) above $320.840 on June 26 and had completed a rounding bottom pattern, we had suggested traders to wait before buying. We wanted to recommend a trade on a successful retest of the breakout level.
However, the fall on June 27 dragged the price back towards the 20-day EMA, which held. Currently, the bulls are trying to propel the ETH/USD pair back above $320.840. If successful, it will be a positive sign. Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive zone, which shows that bulls are in command. Therefore, traders can buy 50% of the desired allocation on a breakout and close above $320.840. The stop loss for this trade can be kept at $278.
However, if the bulls fail to scale the overhead resistance, the bears will try to sink the price below the 20-day EMA. The next support on the downside is at the 50-day SMA and below it $224.086.
Ripple (XRP) plummeted on June 27 and triggered our stop loss suggested in the previous analysis. It is currently trying to find support at the trendline of the symmetrical triangle. If this support holds, the bulls will again try to propel it above the resistance line of the triangle.
However, if the XRP/USD pair breaks down of the triangle, it will turn negative. Currently, the 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI has dipped below 50. This suggests that the bears have the advantage in the near term. A drop below $0.35660 will turn the trend in favor of bears.
Bitcoin cash (BCH) plunged on June 27 and broke below both the moving averages. Currently, the bulls are attempting to push it back above the 20-day EMA. If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, it can move up to $515.35. On the upside, the zone between $515.45 and the resistance line of the channel will act as a strong barrier.
Conversely, if the bears sink the BCH/USD pair back below the 50-day SMA, it can correct to the support line of the channel. A breakdown of this support will indicate a change in trend. The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just above 50, which suggests a balance between bulls and bears. We will wait for a buy setup to form before recommending a long position in it.
Litecoin (LTC) dropped below the 20-day EMA on June 26 and triggered our recommended stop loss mentioned in the previous analysis. It is currently attempting to bounce off the 50-day SMA.
If successful, the LTC/USD pair will again try to move up to the resistance line of the ascending channel. On the other hand, if the bears sink the pair below the 50-day SMA, it can slide to the support line of the channel. A breakdown of this support will signal a change in trend. The 20-day EMA is turning down and the RSI has dipped below the midpoint. This suggests that the bears have the upper hand in the short term. Currently, we are neutral on the cryptocurrency.
EOS dropped below the moving averages on June 26 and broke below the support line of the ascending channel the next day. In doing so, it triggered our suggested stop loss at $6.40. Currently, the bulls are trying to push the price back into the channel. If successful, the digital currency might move up to the moving averages.
But if the bulls fail, the EOS/USD pair might turn down and plunge to the next support at $4.4930. The 20-day EMA is turning down and is on the verge of completing a bearish crossover, which is a negative sign. The RSI has also dipped into the negative zone. All these show that the bears have the upper hand. We do not find any reliable buy setup hence, we are not recommending a trade in it.
Binance Coin (BNB) has been one of the strongest major cryptocurrencies. Even while other major cryptocurrencies plunged, it has held close to its 20-day EMA. This shows that the sentiment is to buy it on every dip.
Currently, the bulls are trying to defend the 20-day EMA. If successful, a rally back towards the lifetime highs is likely. A new high will indicate resumption of the uptrend.
Conversely, if the BNB/USD pair plummets below the 20-day EMA, it can correct to the 50-day SMA. A breakdown below the 50-day SMA will be the first indication that the trend might change. The negative divergence on the RSI is a warning sign that should be watched closely.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) reversed direction from just above $240 on June 26 and broke below the 20-day EMA. Currently, the bulls are attempting to bounce off the support at $180.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has dipped back to just above the midpoint. This points to a probable range-bound action between $175 and $255.620 in the short term. A breakout of the range will resume the uptrend that has a target objective of $307.789 and above it $340.248. If the bears sink the BSV/USD pair below the support of the range, a drop to the 50-day SMA is possible.
Though Cardano (ADA) broke out of $0.10 on June 26, it did not close (UTC time frame) above the resistance. Hence, it did not trigger our buy recommendation given in the previous analysis.
The failure to break out of $0.10 attracted selling that dragged the price down to the 50-day SMA. The bulls are attempting to hold this level. If successful, the ADA/USD pair might move back into the ascending triangle. It will pick up momentum on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.10. However, if the price fails to climb back up, the pair might correct to the next support of $0.077 and below it to $0.073.
Tron (TRX) turned down sharply from $0.040 on June 26. The pullback plunged below the 20-day EMA on June 27. It is currently attempting to bounce off the 50-day SMA. The 20-day SMA is flattening out and the RSI has dipped below 50, which suggests consolidation in the near term.
If the TRX/USD pair breaks below the 50-day SMA, it can drop to the uptrend line. A breakdown of this will indicate a change in trend. On the upside, $0.040 will continue to act as a stiff resistance. A breakout and close above $0.040 will indicate the resumption of the up move. We do not find any reliable trade setups at current levels, hence, we are not suggesting a long position in it.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.
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